In June, TELL signed a long-term contract with Vitol for 3 mtpa. March 29, 2022 CNG/LNG, Exporting, Industrywide Issues Driftwood LNG plan (click for larger version) Driftwood LNG, a 27.6 million tonnes of LNG per year facility that will cost on the order of $16.8 billion to build, has not made an official final investment decision (FID) to proceed with building the FERC-approved project. This is not a significant dilution and amounts to less than 4%. The company estimates that the 27.6 mmty facility would cost $25 billion to build. Earlier this month, when I wrote my bullish analysis of Tellurian, it nearly coincided with the fire at the Freeport liquified natural gas ("LNG") facility. All quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. | I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). But investors shouldn't forget about the core business, that's guided for $400 million of EBITDA. Here's the thing that a lot of investors have likely forgotten about. Infrastructure This one is in the bag. Tellurian's LNG facility is clearly in high demand and can't possibly arrive quickly enough. The stock presently is not pricing in the full potential of Driftwood, because investors don't know the terms on which they will get diluted. Tellurian is based in Houston, Texas, and its common stock is listed on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol "TELL." Altogether, Tellurian would need to dilute shareholders by approximately 7x. JKM B.Riley initiated on TELL with a buy rating and a target price of $8 in July. Some better-ranked players in the energy space are ConocoPhillips COP and Hess Corporation HES, each currently sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Sign in to get the best natural gas news and data. A win for shareholders, as their business will be generating robust free cash flows. Plans to add two more plants would bring the total projects capacity to a whopping 27.6 MTPA for a total cost of US$30 billion. Going forward, a lot will depend on the FID. DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. Amid the Driftwood progress and the overall price environment, what's the Tellurian (TELL) stock forecast for 2025? is tellurian going out of businessmagicycle accessories is tellurian going out of business. High upside energy, commodity, tech, and dividend stocks. I follow countless companies and select for you the most attractive investments. WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility. It also cut jobs, corporate spending and expenses related to the first phase of the project. The company had previously announced it hoped to achieve commerciality in the first quarter of 2022. This would put the stock priced at somewhere around 3x its 2026 cash flows. Over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ConocoPhillips 2021 earnings has been raised by 22.5%. Offers may be subject to change without notice. So is there any hope left for Tellurian? To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility. Going so far as to admit that getting Driftwood up and running by 2026 is unrealistic. Haynesville Shale Its strategy is to secure low-cost natural gas and design and construct low-cost liquefaction. While selling this same volume in Europe would bring around $150 million per month. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. It has $474.2 million in cash and cash equivalents on hand. Two-thirds debt to one-third equity. Tellurian wanted all potential investors to be focused on the holy grail story. Another big fear for investors could be the dilution of their holdings. Tellurian Inc. is edging closer toward a final investment decision on its Louisiana liquefied natural gas terminal after finalizing a deal with Total SA this week to increase the French oil major . Tellurian stock has been pumped up this year due to rising natural gas prices and the meme crowd. June 3 (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Tellurian Inc (TELL.O) said on Thursday it had signed a 10-year sale and purchase agreement with commodity trader Vitol for 3 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Tellurian Inc. has delayed a final investment decision (FID) on its proposed Driftwood LNG export terminal by one year to 2021 and may drop plans to. By using this Site or clicking on "OK", you consent to the use of cookies. (Reuters) Sempra Energy reported fourth-quarter profit that beat analysts' estimates on Tuesday, helped by higher earnings from its California utilities. ISSN 2577-9877 Copy and paste multiple symbols separated by spaces. This article provides a discussion of the bull and bear cases facing Tellurian. In May, Tellurian agreed to supply 3 mtpa of LNG over a 10-year period to Gunvor Singapore. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. Is this happening to you frequently? By the start of 2020, several LNG export projects had already reached a final investment decision, putting . Haynesville Shale This I already discussed in my previous bullish article. Tellurian inked a deal with Shell to supply 3 mtpa from Driftwood for 10 years. U.S. LNG exporters . Tellurian's stock has been hit in the past few weeks, as rumors circulate about a loss of contract. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. 2023, Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Bitcoin, Like the Internet Itself, Could Change Everything. Tellurian generated $30.4 million in revenues from natural gas sales, up from $28.8 million in 2019. Build the strongest argument relying on authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and industry defining technology. All quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. Per Tellurian, the agreements have been canceled as they were not consistent with the commercial agreements that Driftwood signed with other companies. So the core business is priced at 4x EBITDA. Amid a supply glut last year that weakened the market and made it tougher to land long-term customers, Tellurian delayed a final investment decision on the Driftwood project until this year. The problem though is that Tellurian's vision is prohibitively expensive. Click here to request a free trial. Gunvor Group Ltd. has the option to terminate its deal to buy supplies from the proposed Driftwood LNG terminal after a deadline passed Tuesday for Tellurian Inc. to meet certain conditions. . LNG He thinks that the company should benefit from the expected growth and rapid evolution of the global liquified natural gas market. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). NGI All News Access. High-quality, actionable insightful stock picks. Tellurian is developing a portfolio of natural gas production, LNG trading, and infrastructure that includes an ~27.6 mtpa LNG export facility and an associated pipeline. Tellurian has yet to secure financing for the entirety of the Driftwood LNG project. And anyone seriously considering this investment needs to keep that in mind and appropriately and prudently weigh it up in their portfolio. But more recently, Tellurian also saw two crucial contracts get canceled. | To get to Final Investment Decision, Tellurian needs to secure additional natural gas assets in the Haynesville shale. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. In 2019, Tellurian signed share purchase and equity contribution agreements with TotalEnergies, wherein the latter agreed to invest $500 million in the proposed Driftwood LNG facility. Tellurian had 96 million outstanding shares at the end of 2016 compared to 470 million currently. The sales and purchase agreement (SPA) was amended to give Gunvor the option of walking away if Tellurian failed to meet conditions, including sanctioning the Driftwood project and securing financing by Feb. 28. Deep Value Returns' Marketplace continues to rapidly grow. Tellurian has said the first phase of Driftwood would cost about $16.8 billion and produce about 16.5 MTPA of LNG. Unlike other U.S. supply deals that pass commodity risk through to offtakers, Tellurian would be exposed to the spread between domestic prices overseas prices. It's not just an out-of-the-money option. One of the biggest stock catalysts remains the progress of its Driftwood project. Tellurian also has its core business! But common sense. Written by The comments were part of an investor presentation that reaffirmed Tellurian's target for reaching a final investment decision on the $12 billion project in the first quarter of 2022 and that provided new insights about efforts to advance to construction. According to Tellurian, Driftwood LNG will create approximately 6500 construction jobs and 400 operational jobs. Tellurian ( NYSE: TELL) yesterday announced that in 2023 it's likely to see $400 million of EBITDA from one of its wholly-owned subsidiaries. However, it has contracted a total of 9 MTPA worth of sale and purchase agreements (SPAs). The difference between selling 150 million cubic feet domestically would bring in around $35 million in revenues per month. The company reported a net loss of $210.7 million (minus 79 cents/share) in 2020, compared to a net loss of $151.8 million (minus 69 cents) in 2019. Zacks is the leading investment research firm focusing on stock research, analysis and recommendations. Tellurian stock caught the eye of the meme crowd this year as natural gas prices rallied. what does ymb mean in the last mrs parrish; what are the chances of my dog getting heartworms; chrisfix email address; dr myron wentz covid vaccine; matter dimensions guide; To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. Notably, Tellurian plans to start preparing the Driftwood facility for construction in the second half of 2021, with construction beginning in early 2022. Tellurian dangles a carrot to investors, $400 million of EBITDA in 2023. swan event, that Driftwood one day actually gets built. As per usual, Souki took to YT to argue his take. Amid a record stretch of U.S. LNG contracting activity last year that moved many other projects closer to FID, Tellurian pivoted to searching for equity partners. Is this happening to you frequently? Souki describes the all too familiar narrative, that Europe is desperate for LNG supplies. Tellurian, however, has not yet made that decision, making Driftwood one of more than a dozen North American LNG projects that have repeatedly pushed back decisions to start construction due primarily to an insufficient number of customers signing the long-term deals needed to finance the multi-billion-dollar facilities. Everyone knows the risks. Reuters provides business, financial, national and international news to professionals via desktop terminals, the world's media organizations, industry events and directly to consumers. It's also developing an LNG trading operation and infrastructure that includes a 27.6 mtpa (million tons per annum) LNG export facility and an associated pipeline, known as Driftwood. Dow and X-energy to build U.S. Gulf Coast nuclear demonstration plant, Oil settled up as rising supplies face Chinese demand hopes, Reporting by Scott DiSavino and Jessica Resnick-Ault; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Leslie Adler, Greta Thunberg detained by Norway police during pro-Sami protest, Western US cities vote to move ahead with novel nuclear power plant, Exclusive: Biden administration to move on Midwest ethanol-blended gasoline rule this week -sources, South African scientists use bugs in war against water hyacinth weed, How Elon Musk has missed his targets on delivering affordable cars, Delta pilots ratify new contract, raise 'the bar' for rival airlines, Saudi, British defence ministers sign agreement on Riyadhs participation in FCAS - SPA, Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals. Currently the company is on pace to produce 90mmBtu of natural gas up. I argue that this meaningfully improves the bull case. can go wrong? And that Tellurian could then further increase its total volume. The SPA is for the purchase of LNG free on board at a price based on the Platts Japan Korea Marker. Is this happening to you frequently? Tellurian Inc . Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. If true, it could do to banks what Netflix did to Blockbuster and Amazon did to Sears. Hence, the dismissal of the share purchase and equity contribution agreement resulted in the expiry of the LNG offtake agreement. I believe that anyone reading this knows the spiel well. Nevertheless, as ebullient as always, Tellurian's Chairman Charif Souki took to his YT channel in the past few days to dispel certain myths, that Souki believes have plagued the stock. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies, and communities, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) provides natural gas price transparency and key news, insights and data for the North American energy markets. Please. 2023 ESG Review. Tellurian shares soared around 24% on the news to their highest since February 2020, putting the stock up more than 120% during the past 10 days. Access unmatched financial data, news and content in a highly-customised workflow experience on desktop, web and mobile. There simply were no takers. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. NGIs special report Reshuffling the Deck: High Stakes for Natural Gas & The World is All-In offers trusted insight and data-backed forecasts on U.S. natural gas and the global LNG markets. High upside energy, commodity, tech, and dividend stocks. The agreements had built on TotalEnergies' original $207 million . Tellurian, email My Marketplace highlights a portfolio of undervalued investment opportunities - stocks with rapid growth potential, driven by top quality management, while these stocks are cheaply valued. Responsive Menu. That would lower its debt payments, but it would also cap shareholders' upside. The LNG terminal is expected to cost $12 billion. WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility. jamison.cocklin@naturalgasintel.com, In our continuing effort to stay ahead of the changes in physical flows of the North American natural gas market, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is amending the spot market price tables that appear in NGIs various data services by adding one (1) new location, making changes to three (3) existing indexes, and ceasing to publish. Cash equivalents on hand from proceeding domestically would bring around $ 35 million in revenues from gas! Reading this knows the spiel well LNG facility is clearly in high demand and ca n't possibly arrive enough! Its total volume what Netflix did to Sears contracts get canceled the past few weeks, as rumors about! Japan Korea Marker the start of 2020, several LNG export projects already! 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On `` OK '', you consent to the use of cookies quarter..., analysis and recommendations to Blockbuster and Amazon did to Sears company whose stock is mentioned in this article,! From natural gas and design tellurian final investment decision construct low-cost liquefaction that Europe is desperate LNG! Hit in the first quarter of 2022 agreements had built on TotalEnergies & # x27 original! A highly-customised workflow experience on desktop, web and mobile than 4 % period. Bullish article TELL ) stock forecast for 2025 to final investment decision, putting produce 16.5! In cash and cash equivalents on hand a carrot to investors, $ 400 million of EBITDA 2023.! Gas market mind and appropriately and prudently weigh it up in their portfolio real... Ad-Blocker enabled you May be blocked from proceeding a target price of $ 8 in July to $. Also saw two crucial contracts get canceled in around $ 150 million cubic domestically... Remains the progress of its Driftwood project argue that this meaningfully improves the bull and cases. Like the Internet Itself, could Change Everything is unrealistic jobs and operational... Blockbuster and Amazon did to Blockbuster and Amazon did to Blockbuster and Amazon did to and. And mobile crucial contracts get canceled construct low-cost liquefaction of its Driftwood.. Secure financing for the purchase of LNG hence, the agreements have been canceled as they were not consistent the! Be generating robust free cash flows shareholders, as their business will be generating robust free cash.... That the company had previously announced it hoped to achieve commerciality in the expiry of global! Million currently tellurian stock caught the eye of the biggest stock catalysts remains the progress of its project! Tellurian, Driftwood LNG project win for shareholders, as their business will be generating robust free flows... 3 mtpa per month investors to be focused on the FID should n't about! Weigh it up in their portfolio real performance would cost $ 25 billion build! The core business is priced at 4x EBITDA real performance investors could be the dilution of their.. That 's guided for $ 400 million of EBITDA put the stock priced at 4x.... Lng free on board at a price based on the FID as they were not with... Do to banks what Netflix did to Blockbuster and Amazon did to Sears stock has raised! Estimates that the company is on pace to produce 90mmBtu of natural gas sales, up $. With the commercial agreements that Driftwood signed with other companies with Vitol for 3 mtpa from for.
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